The external resources below (updated on a rolling basis) provide information and analysis as Congress and the Trump Administration consider changes to federal Medicaid funding, rules and regulations:
THE LATEST: Analysis of Medicaid and ACA Marketplace Provisions in 2025 Reconciliation Bill (the “One Big Beautiful Bill”)
Context: On May 22, the US House of Representatives in Congress passed a reconciliation bill, which included over $800 billion in cuts to Medicaid and significant changes to ACA marketplaces. On June 4, the Congressional Budget Office released projections that the House bill would result in 16 million Americans becoming uninsured, including 8 million Medicaid enrollees. On June 16, the US Senate Finance committee proposed draft language with changes to the House bill’s health care provisions.
- Health Provisions in the 2025 Federal Budget Reconciliation Bill (Kaiser Family Foundation, UPDATED June 17, 2025)
- By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families’ Health Care Costs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, June 6, 2025)
- House Budget Bill and Tax Credit Expiration Will Make It Harder to Get and Afford Marketplace Health Plans (Commonwealth Fund, June 5, 2025)
- Medicaid and CHIP Cuts in the House-Passed Reconciliation Bill Explained (Georgetown Center for Children and Families, UPDATED June 4, 2025)
- Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions and Enrollment Loss Across the States (Kaiser Family Foundation, UPDATED June 4, 2025)
- Proposed changes to Medicaid, other health programs could lead to over 51,000 preventable deaths, researchers warn (Yale School of Public Health, June 3, 2025)
- House Republican Health Agenda Cuts Coverage, Raises People’s Costs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, May 29, 2025)
- New Summary: Medicaid-Related Provisions in the H.R. 1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Sellers Dorsey, May 23, 2025
- Don’t Believe Them! The Proposed Reconciliation Bill Directly Harms Older Adults & People with Disabilities on Medicare (National Health Law Program, May 20, 2025)
- MEMO: Analysis of Harms to California from GOP Medicaid Proposal (State of California, May 18, 2025)
- How Will the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Affect the ACA, Medicaid, and the Uninsured Rate? (Kaiser Family Foundation, May 13, 2025)
Analysis of Prior Proposals
Context: The following materials were published prior to the House passing a reconcilliation bill on May 22 (see above). The analyses below examined past proposals circulated in Congress or attempted to project the potential impacts of the Congressional budget resolution (passed in April) that called for a total of $880 billion in cuts to federal spending.
Impact on Jobs
- California Health Care Employment by District and County 2023 (UC Labor Center, May 2025)
- California Could Lose Up to 217,000 Jobs if Congress Cuts Medicaid (UC Labor Center, April 2025)
- How Potential Federal Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP Could Trigger the Loss of a Million-Plus Jobs, Reduced Economic Activity, and Less State Revenue (Commonwealth Fund, March 25, 2025)
Impact on Latinos
Impact on State Budgets
- States in the Bull’s-Eye of Medicaid Cuts (The Century Foundation, April 2025)
- Putting $880 Billion in Potential Federal Medicaid Cuts in Context of State Budgets and Coverage (Kaiser Family Foundation, March 24, 2025)
Impact on Seniors
- A Cut to Medicaid is a Cut to Medicare (Justice in Aging, Community Catalyst, Medicare Rights Center, and the Center for Medicare Advocacy, March 4, 2025)
- Federal Cuts to Medicaid Will Harm Older Californians on Medi-Cal (Justice in Aging, February 2025)
- Webinar Replay: Protecting Medicaid for Older Adults: What’s at Risk and what Advocates Can Do (Justice in Aging, February 4, 2025)
Per-Capita Caps
- Medicaid Per Capita Cap Would Harm Millions of People by Forcing Deep Cuts and Shifting Costs to States (Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, January 2025)
Restricting Provider Taxes
Work Requirements
- Medicaid Work Requirements Undermine Rural Healthcare (National Health Law Program, April 2025)
- Paperwork Over People: Why Republican “Work Requirements” Fail Families (California Budget & Policy Center, March, 2025)
- Eight Million Medi-Cal Enrollees at Risk of Losing Health Coverage If Congress Imposes Work Requirements (UC Labor Center, March 25, 2025)
- Medicaid Work Requirements Would Gut State and Local Economies. (National Health Law Program, March, 2025)
- Medicaid Work Requirements Could Put 36 Million People at Risk of Losing Health Coverage (Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, February 5, 2025)
- Medicaid Work Requirements: Current Waiver and Legislative Activity (Kaiser Family Foundation, November 2024)
